Now I am no Bitcoin OG, but being around since 2015 means I am pretty much getting up there in Bitcoin years. I’ve seen a lot of mania, pain, scams, hacks and drama over the last six years, and I am sure the trend will continue. The only doubt I have is the way it will play out.
Will it remain a cyclical four-year pattern, or will it transform into something more of a mainstay?
I think it’s safe to say that the run-up from R3000 smashing the previous all-time high of $20 000 and now sitting in the $60 000 range has been one mega bull run. I’m amazed at how quickly we’ve gotten used to these prices, feeling like it’s the new floor and begging for more.
We humans and our greed know no bounds.
When Bitcoin runs, everyone’s hanging on for fun.
Bitcoin and its programmatic supply constraints mean that as the supply dries up, the appetite for the asset increases. Then the market tries to figure out what a new fair price for Bitcoin would be at its current issuance rate.
So when this majestic creature decides it’s now time to flex and level up, anything remotely tethered to it will move up along with it.
These upward price movements create an even bigger hype cycle, with the shitcoin parasites feeding off scraps, misdirection and naivety in the market. The bull run brings with it an irrational exuberance as short time frame wealth now seems possible. It encourages larger bets, more leverage and overall degen behaviour in the markets.
As the market factors in Bitcoin’s new supply distribution, price discovery takes place, and at times it will be overbought and other times oversold.
Am I guilty of cheering on the Bitcoin price at times? We all are, but I feel I’ve had enough now. I hope we’re getting close to the top because the bull market attitude is starting to get on my tits.
The moon boys and girls.
When the price runs up, more people take an interest in Bitcoin; that’s a fact. Think about the daunting task a new person has to face heading to the social media sphere for information and following large accounts.
They are naturally going to gravitate to the easy to consume price prediction content. Anyone with no brains and morals will gravitate to supplying that kind of content. It’s the free market servicing the demand, I suppose, but these moon boys and girls don’t do much, in my opinion, to educate.
I feel like they do a disservice to real educators in the space and often spread misinformation and poor takes, cookie-cutter thoughts, or repackage others thoughts as their own.
Let me quote Plan B’s stock to Flow model or some other big names price prediction. Let me mindlessly share clips and screenshots out of context to push the “to the moon” narrative.
There are a lot of grifters in Bitcoin looking to leverage the brand for their personal gain, so be careful who you listen to; these people have no interest in Bitcoin, only to further personal agendas and gain more fait.
If I year one more person quote super cycle, I swear I’ll use my ledger to slit my throat.
The shitcoiner overconfidence.
I sure hate a Bitcoin grifter, but shitcoiners aren’t too far behind on my hit list. If you’ve paid any attention to these projects, you know they do not appreciate through their merit as a project. Shitcoins appreciate because they are loosely pegged to Bitcoin. Shitcoins also benefit from naive investor unit bias or those looking to roll into risker plays for more profits.
They see the price in fiat terms increase (not noticing the price in satoshi terms decrease as their loose peg breaks) and think they are financial geniuses. As the Bitcoin price rises, it provides a floor for this stupidity, rug pulls, and game of musical chairs.
You can’t talk to people and have a decent conversation because they don’t think they’re wrong. It becomes exhausting and something I don’t want to deal with if I can help it.
If I told you to buy Bitcoin 5 years ago and you like, oh, I can’t afford a whole Bitcoin, how about shitcoin A, B or C? Then don’t talk to me, fail on your own, you clearly never wanted to listen to me, to begin with so why start now?
The media hype.
If there’s one fiat institution that loves a good bull run, it’s the media; it’s excellent for clicks and engagement to fund their dying fiat empire. Be it traditional media houses or these new crypto-based VC funded media houses. They’re all using the same model. Create clickbait content, sell ads or create sponsored content for shitcoins and fintech companies.
Recycle some VC money with us, and we can all eat at the trough with our blatant lies or terrible takes on Bitcoin. Despite being glorified PR syndication tools, people still think these sites hold any journalistic integrity, and many believe the stories.
Even if tomorrow they post a contradictory story, very few people have the attention span to notice the inconsistencies and hypocrisy of the media.
The need to constantly grind out content to pay for your operations means your product quality means very little and is often sacrificed at the altar of short term fiat gains.
Media amplifies any message that will get them clicks, and most of the time, this is no effort noise distracting people and keeping them from digging deep into Bitcoin.
They are drowning out the purpose of Bitcoin.
When so much focus is on price and gains, people tend to ignore, forget or not bother to learn about the other aspects of Bitcoin. The self serenity, the low time preference, the safety and privacy practices one should know.
All of this takes a back seat during bull runs, and I think it’s an absolute crime that the true magic and message of Bitcoin are lost.
Rewarding fiat thinking.
As Bitcoiners, we know trading in and out of Bitcoin is a long term losing game, but we all need to learn it eventually. Since they don’t know any better, the fait gains these newcoiners make tends to provide them with proof that they are doing the right thing.
You’re just a dumb maxi that isn’t as smart as them. They’ve figured out the game and making crazy gains, and you sound like a boring old boomer.
You can also see the fiat thinking rewards system at play in the amount of YouTube channels, paid courses all grifting in the space. All these fiat junkies are trying to sell you something instead of reaching you anything.
Their goal is tot you to part with your money and time instead of getting you to focus on learning and stacking.
I don’t think this needs explaining, but yeah, as the price runs up, people want to get in on any and everything to try and make a buck. Liquidity is flowing into the space, and scammers are going to take advantage of naive traders.
I am lacking in stacking.
On a more personal note, Bitcoin bull runs are annoying because my DCA gets more way fewer sats. My goal isn’t to get more fiat. I honestly couldn’t care less about the fiat value. As far as a nice psychological milestone, I am willing to acknowledge it for a few seconds.
I don’t care.
Measuring the price in fiat only matters to me regarding how many sats I can get for 1 unit of fiat. Measuring my wealth in fiat is as helpful as measuring my wealth in soccer balls and big macs.
Since I cannot increase how much my labour is worth in fiat, I am limited to how many sats I can acquire each month, which is a real bitter pill to swallow.
Feast or famine.
As much as I love to see Bitcoin pound other assets into the ground, I can’t help but have a growing detest of the bull market. I wouldn’t mind seeing an 80 – 90% dip that completely obliterates leverage in the system and overconfidence. I would love to see liquidity dry up and kill a lot of these shitcoin projects.
I would like to see how these newcomers react who have never seen a real market turn down. I’d love to see how these new traders react sitting on bullish positions when the market decides to clear house because all they know is up.
I am not advocating for getting wrecked; I know how painful it can be, I was there in 2017, getting my ass handed to me, and I humbly accepted my lesson. I might sound salty, but I’ve seen this story play out before, and it doesn’t end well for most new entrants.
A tool for adults, but the kids are in charge.
I guess I see Bitcoin as more than a get rich quick scheme and a way to associate with a big brand so you can get more attention. I see it as a tool that should be used to get at core issues like political corruption, monetary debasement, unfair tax practices, interest rate apartheid and much more.
A tool that is so fundamental to societies future is now thrown around like a toy, and I have to say it’s rather annoying. I believe in the free market, and most of these nutters will get what’s coming to them; I think it puts breaks on Bitcoin that are unnecessary.
We’ve got so much work ahead of us in terms of adoption and application, and right now, it just seems like a feeding frenzy for attention and fiat profits.
To sum it up, I am not a fan of turning Bitcoin into a bread and circus parade.