As the price of Bitcoin rallies and the market is getting a little frothy, I see a lot of people coming out of the weeds, throwing a bit of money in and frothing at the mouth at the idea of 20, 50, 100% ROI in a short space of time. Can it happen?
Absolutely, does it mean you’ll profit? Probably not, of those coming in to take short term positions and trade the run many will get greedy and not sell when they should since we can never predict a top.
Some will get out, they will rave about what geniuses they are, and that’s all the stories you’ll ever hear. It’s only the winners that share their stories, the losers quietly sell-off and go do something else out of fear and embarrassment, that’s just the way it goes.
Through highs and lows
I’ve been in crypto through bull and bear runs, and man has it thought me a shit load about the market, about myself and about macro and all sorts of mental fallacies we have when it comes to investing.
Do I fall for that shit?
Of course, I do, do I learn from it, well I try to, the highs and lows I welcome them now, volatility is my friend and I am enjoying the journey I actually don’t care much about the destination.
Since I am pretty vocal about Bitcoin people will often message me for advice, and I’ll happily answer them on what I’ve done where I’ve bought. The gains I’ve made and I can tell you one thing No ones given a fuck about anything else I’ve had to say other than the gains, it’s all about the gains bro.
There have been a few that have asked the right questions and taken up positions for the long run, but the vast majority are about trying to time runs and make some extraordinary income.
The thing is, if BTC goes up 10x and you putting in 1000 bucks, yes you’ll get 10k for very little work and for some that can be life-changing but more often than not you can piss through that money pretty quickly.
Easy come, easy go as they say.
Why worry about the price when you can worry about what you can control
…the stake! You have no control over what the market is going to value Bitcoin at any time period you can only ride the waves. So why focus so much time and energy into something you can’t control? Why not focus it on something you can control, which is getting more stake.
We’ve all got a number in our heads that would be our exit figure so why not try to bring down the amount you need BTC to go up by to reach that exit figure by increasing your stake.
How much are you willing to risk? I think crypto will make a lot more millionaires than it has made in the past, but it will be from those who are the most prudent and spend time in the market rather than timing the market.
Will some outliers pull off great trades in a short time frame? Yes, but that’s all they are, outliers, luck riders that assume they discovered a magic formula, but let them try to repeat it, I doubt it.
Everyone looks like a genius in a bull run, so don’t let the waves catch you off guard.